It’s looking to be tight at the top between Reform UK and the Green Party, as voters in Gorton and Denton prepare to head to the polls in ten days time.
The by-election on 26 February will prove to be a test of support for the Labour government in Manchester. Former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who represented the area since 2005, stepped down from the position over health issues, after sitting as an independent following his suspension from the party early last year.
Why does the constituency’s profile matter?
The constituency spans parts of Manchester and Tameside, including Gorton, Denton, Longsight, Levenshulme and Burnage. It is among the most deprived seats in England, with “one of the highest rates of child poverty in England and Wales”. Turnout was low at 48% in 2024 and analysts suggest that reduced participation could again play a decisive role this time.
This by-election has been widely described as a three-way contest between Labour, Reform and the Green Party. A ‘Find Out Now’ poll conducted in late January by Poll Check placed Reform narrowly ahead with 30%, followed by Labour and the Greens. Labour, who won over 50% of the vote in 2024, enters the race defending a historically strong background, yet facing internal turbulence after the party’s National Executive Committee blocked the Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, from standing.
Could controversy affect the results?
Reform UK’s campaign has drawn additional attention after a leaflet was distributed without a legally required imprint and prompted a police investigation. The Greens, however, believe they can make a breakthrough. When chosen to run in the Gorton and Denton by-election, formal mayoral candidate Hannah Spencer said: “This is a crucial byelection. The choice is clear: Green v Reform. Hope v hate. Only the Green party can stop Reform in this byelection.”
With 11 candidates on the ballot and political pressures converging, the Gorton and Denton by-election is expected to serve as an early indicator of voter attitudes ahead of the local elections in May.
Who are the candidates?
Here is a full list of the candidates standing in the by-election:
Angeliki Stogia – Labour Party
Charlotte Cadden – Conservative and Unionist Party
Dan Clarke – Libertarian Party
Hannah Spencer – Green Party
Hugo Wils – Communist League Election Campaign
Jackie Pearcey – Liberal Democrats
Joseph O’Meachair – Rejoin EU
Matt Goodwin – Reform UK
Nick Buckley – Advance UK
Sebastian Moore – Social Democratic Party
Sir Oink A Lot – The Official Monster Raving Loony Party